The Pacific Anomalies Workshop Two: Understanding Extreme Conditions in the North Pacific

In January 2016, the University of Washington (UW) hosted the Pacific Anomalies Workshop Two, bringing together atmospheric scientists, oceanographers, and ecologists to delve into the unusual ocean weather and climate patterns observed across the North Pacific basin. This workshop focused on understanding the underlying mechanisms driving these patterns and their profound impact on pelagic ecosystems, including fisheries. This in-depth look explores the context, significance, and key takeaways from this crucial scientific gathering.

This workshop was a critical response to a growing concern: the increasing prevalence of extreme conditions in physical and biogeochemical parameters throughout the North Pacific. These anomalies, ranging from unusual sea surface temperatures to shifts in nutrient availability, were having noticeable and potentially devastating effects on marine life and the industries that depend on it.

Sponsored by a consortium of leading scientific organizations, including U.S. IOOS, NOAA OAR Ocean Climate Observation Program, NOAA Western Regional Team, Washington Sea Grant, California Sea Grant, the University of Washington’s College of the Environment, Applied Physics Laboratory, and the Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean, the workshop provided a platform for researchers to share their findings, collaborate on solutions, and inform policy decisions.

The Urgency of Understanding Pacific Anomalies

The Pacific Ocean plays a vital role in global climate regulation and supports a vast array of marine ecosystems. Changes in the Pacific, therefore, have far-reaching consequences. The anomalies discussed at the workshop were not isolated incidents but rather indicators of larger-scale shifts in the ocean's physical and chemical properties. These shifts can disrupt food webs, alter species distributions, and ultimately threaten the health and productivity of the entire marine environment.

Understanding the causes and consequences of these anomalies is crucial for several reasons:

• Predicting Future Changes: By identifying the driving mechanisms behind these anomalies, scientists can develop more accurate models for predicting future climate and ocean conditions.
• Mitigating Impacts: Armed with better predictions, policymakers and resource managers can implement strategies to mitigate the negative impacts of these changes on fisheries, coastal communities, and marine ecosystems.
• Informing Policy: The research presented at the workshop can inform the development of effective policies for managing marine resources and protecting the health of the ocean.

The Pacific Anomalies Workshop Two served as a catalyst for advancing our understanding of these complex issues and fostering collaboration among researchers and stakeholders.

I. The North Pacific: A Region of Climate Extremes and Ecological Sensitivity

The North Pacific Ocean is a dynamic and ecologically rich region, characterized by significant variability in its physical and chemical properties. This variability is driven by a complex interplay of factors, including atmospheric circulation patterns, ocean currents, and biological processes. The region is particularly sensitive to climate change and has experienced several notable anomalies in recent years, impacting marine ecosystems and human activities.

Key Features of the North Pacific Climate System

Understanding the climate system of the North Pacific requires considering several key features:

• The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO): The PDO is a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of climate variability in the North Pacific. It alternates between "warm" and "cool" phases, which can persist for several years or even decades. These phases influence sea surface temperatures, atmospheric circulation, and marine ecosystems throughout the region.
• The North Pacific Gyre: This large, clockwise-rotating current system dominates the circulation of the North Pacific. It plays a crucial role in distributing heat, nutrients, and marine organisms across the basin. Changes in the gyre's strength or structure can have significant impacts on regional climate and ecology.
• Upwelling Zones: Coastal upwelling zones, such as those found off the coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington, are regions where nutrient-rich deep water is brought to the surface. These zones support highly productive marine ecosystems and are important fishing grounds.
• Sea Ice Extent: The extent of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has a significant influence on the climate of the North Pacific. As sea ice melts, it can alter ocean salinity, atmospheric circulation, and the distribution of marine species.

These features interact in complex ways to shape the climate and ecology of the North Pacific. Changes in any one of these features can trigger a cascade of effects throughout the system.

Recent Anomalies in the North Pacific

In recent years, the North Pacific has experienced a number of notable anomalies, including:

• The "Blob": From 2013 to 2016, a large mass of unusually warm water, known as the "Blob," persisted in the Northeast Pacific. This anomaly had devastating effects on marine ecosystems, leading to mass die-offs of seabirds, marine mammals, and fish.
• Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs): The frequency and intensity of HABs have increased in recent years, posing a threat to human health, marine ecosystems, and fisheries. These blooms can produce toxins that accumulate in shellfish and other seafood, making them unsafe for consumption.
• Changes in Species Distribution: Many marine species are shifting their distributions in response to changing ocean temperatures and other environmental factors. This can disrupt food webs and alter the composition of marine communities.
• Ocean Acidification: The absorption of excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is causing the ocean to become more acidic. This can have negative impacts on marine organisms with calcium carbonate shells, such as shellfish and corals.

These anomalies highlight the vulnerability of the North Pacific to climate change and the urgent need for research and monitoring to understand and mitigate their impacts.

II. Physical and Biogeochemical Parameters: Tracking the Health of the Ocean

The Pacific Anomalies Workshop Two focused on understanding the extreme conditions observed in physical and biogeochemical parameters across the North Pacific. These parameters provide crucial insights into the health and functioning of the ocean, allowing scientists to track changes in its physical state, chemical composition, and biological productivity.

Key Physical Parameters

Several key physical parameters are used to monitor the state of the North Pacific:

• Sea Surface Temperature (SST): SST is a fundamental indicator of ocean climate and plays a crucial role in regulating atmospheric circulation and marine ecosystems. Anomalies in SST, such as the "Blob," can have significant impacts on marine life.
• Salinity: Salinity is the measure of dissolved salts in seawater. Changes in salinity can affect ocean density, circulation patterns, and the distribution of marine species.
• Ocean Currents: Ocean currents transport heat, nutrients, and marine organisms across the basin. Monitoring current strength and direction is essential for understanding the distribution of marine resources and the transport of pollutants.
• Sea Ice Extent and Thickness: Sea ice plays a crucial role in regulating the climate of the North Pacific. Monitoring sea ice extent and thickness is essential for understanding the impacts of climate change on the region.
• Water Column Stratification: Stratification refers to the layering of water masses with different densities. Increased stratification can limit the mixing of nutrients from deep water to the surface, reducing primary productivity.

Key Biogeochemical Parameters

Biogeochemical parameters provide insights into the chemical composition and biological productivity of the ocean:

• Nutrient Concentrations: Nutrients, such as nitrogen, phosphorus, and silicon, are essential for phytoplankton growth. Monitoring nutrient concentrations is crucial for understanding primary productivity and the health of marine ecosystems.
• Chlorophyll-a Concentration: Chlorophyll-a is a pigment found in phytoplankton and is used as a proxy for primary productivity. Monitoring chlorophyll-a concentrations can provide insights into the health and functioning of marine ecosystems.
• Dissolved Oxygen: Dissolved oxygen is essential for marine life. Low oxygen levels, or hypoxia, can create "dead zones" where marine organisms cannot survive.
• Ocean pH: Ocean pH is a measure of the acidity of seawater. Ocean acidification, caused by the absorption of excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, can have negative impacts on marine organisms with calcium carbonate shells.
• Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Levels: Monitoring CO2 levels in the ocean is crucial for understanding the impacts of climate change on ocean chemistry and biology.

By monitoring these physical and biogeochemical parameters, scientists can track changes in the health and functioning of the North Pacific and identify potential threats to marine ecosystems.

III. Impacts on Pelagic Ecosystems: Disruptions in the Food Web

The anomalies observed in the North Pacific have had significant impacts on pelagic ecosystems, disrupting food webs and altering the distribution and abundance of marine species. These impacts have cascading effects throughout the ecosystem, affecting everything from phytoplankton to top predators.

Impacts on Primary Producers

Phytoplankton, the microscopic plants that form the base of the marine food web, are particularly vulnerable to changes in ocean conditions. Anomalies in sea surface temperature, nutrient availability, and ocean acidification can all affect phytoplankton growth and productivity.

• Changes in Phytoplankton Composition: Shifts in ocean conditions can favor certain types of phytoplankton over others, leading to changes in the composition of the phytoplankton community. This can have cascading effects on the rest of the food web, as different types of phytoplankton have different nutritional value for zooplankton.
• Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs): As mentioned earlier, the frequency and intensity of HABs have increased in recent years. These blooms can produce toxins that kill marine organisms and contaminate seafood.
• Reduced Primary Productivity: In some areas, anomalies in ocean conditions have led to reduced primary productivity, meaning that less food is available for zooplankton and other marine organisms.

Impacts on Zooplankton

Zooplankton, the small animals that feed on phytoplankton, are a crucial link in the marine food web. Changes in phytoplankton abundance and composition can have significant impacts on zooplankton populations.

• Changes in Zooplankton Abundance and Distribution: Shifts in ocean conditions can cause zooplankton populations to decline or shift their distributions. This can have cascading effects on the rest of the food web, as zooplankton are an important food source for many fish and marine mammals.
• Changes in Zooplankton Nutritional Value: Changes in phytoplankton composition can affect the nutritional value of zooplankton, as different types of phytoplankton have different nutritional profiles. This can affect the growth and survival of fish and other marine organisms that feed on zooplankton.

Impacts on Fish and Marine Mammals

The impacts on primary producers and zooplankton have ripple effects that extend up the food web to fish and marine mammals.

• Changes in Fish Distribution and Abundance: Many fish species are shifting their distributions in response to changing ocean temperatures and food availability. Some fish populations have declined in abundance due to reduced food availability or increased predation pressure.
• Mass Mortality Events: Anomalies in ocean conditions have been linked to mass mortality events of seabirds, marine mammals, and fish. These events can have devastating effects on marine ecosystems.
• Changes in Marine Mammal Behavior: Changes in food availability and distribution can affect the behavior of marine mammals, such as their foraging patterns and migration routes.

The disruptions in pelagic ecosystems highlight the vulnerability of the North Pacific to climate change and the need for effective management strategies to protect marine resources.

IV. Fisheries Impacts: Economic and Social Consequences

The anomalies in the North Pacific have had significant impacts on fisheries, with far-reaching economic and social consequences for coastal communities that depend on these resources. Changes in fish distribution, abundance, and health have affected fishing yields, market prices, and the livelihoods of fishermen and seafood processors.

Changes in Fish Stocks and Distribution

One of the most significant impacts on fisheries has been the shift in fish stocks and distribution due to changing ocean conditions. As water temperatures rise and food availability changes, many fish species are moving to cooler waters or areas with more abundant food sources. This can lead to declines in fish stocks in traditional fishing grounds and increased competition for resources in new areas.

• Shifting Distributions: Commercially important fish species, such as salmon, cod, and halibut, have been observed shifting their distributions in response to changing ocean conditions. This can make it difficult for fishermen to locate and catch these species.
• Declining Stocks: Some fish populations have declined in abundance due to reduced food availability, increased predation pressure, or disease outbreaks. This can lead to reduced fishing yields and economic losses for fishermen.
• Increased Competition: As fish species shift their distributions, they may encounter new predators or competitors. This can lead to increased mortality rates and further declines in fish stocks.

Economic Impacts

The changes in fish stocks and distribution have had significant economic impacts on fishing communities.

• Reduced Fishing Yields: Declining fish stocks and shifting distributions have led to reduced fishing yields for many fishermen. This can result in lower incomes and economic hardship.
• Increased Fishing Costs: As fish species move to new areas, fishermen may have to travel further to locate and catch them. This can increase fuel costs and other expenses, further reducing their profits.
• Market Price Fluctuations: Changes in fish supply can lead to fluctuations in market prices. Reduced supply can drive up prices, making seafood less affordable for consumers.
• Job Losses: Declining fish stocks and economic hardship can lead to job losses in the fishing industry, including fishermen, seafood processors, and other related workers.

Social Impacts

The economic impacts of fisheries disruptions can have significant social consequences for coastal communities.

• Loss of Livelihood: Fishing is a traditional way of life for many coastal communities. Declining fish stocks can threaten this way of life and lead to a loss of cultural identity.
• Increased Poverty: Economic hardship can lead to increased poverty and social inequality in coastal communities.
• Mental Health Issues: The stress and uncertainty associated with declining fish stocks can contribute to mental health issues, such as anxiety and depression.
• Community Conflict: Competition for dwindling resources can lead to conflict between different fishing groups or between fishermen and other stakeholders.

Addressing the impacts of climate change on fisheries requires a comprehensive approach that includes sustainable fishing practices, ecosystem-based management, and support for coastal communities.

V. The Role of Ocean Observation Programs: Monitoring and Predicting Change

Ocean observation programs play a vital role in monitoring and predicting changes in the North Pacific. These programs collect data on a wide range of physical, chemical, and biological parameters, providing essential information for understanding the dynamics of the ocean and its response to climate change.

Key Ocean Observation Programs

Several key ocean observation programs contribute to our understanding of the North Pacific:

• U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS): U.S. IOOS is a national network of regional observing systems that collect data on ocean conditions and provide information to stakeholders.
• NOAA Ocean Climate Observation Program: This program supports long-term monitoring of ocean climate variables, such as sea surface temperature, salinity, and ocean currents.
• Argo Program: The Argo Program deploys thousands of autonomous floats that drift throughout the ocean, measuring temperature and salinity profiles.
• Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI): The OOI is a network of cabled and autonomous sensors that provide real-time data on ocean conditions at key locations.
• Satellite Observations: Satellites provide a broad-scale view of ocean conditions, including sea surface temperature, chlorophyll-a concentration, and sea ice extent.

Data Collection and Analysis

These ocean observation programs collect data using a variety of methods, including:

• Moored Buoys: Moored buoys are equipped with sensors that measure a wide range of ocean parameters, such as temperature, salinity, currents, and wave height.
• Research Vessels: Research vessels conduct surveys to collect data on ocean conditions and marine life.
• Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs): AUVs are robotic vehicles that can be deployed to collect data in remote or difficult-to-access areas.
• Satellite Remote Sensing: Satellites use sensors to measure ocean properties from space.

The data collected by these programs are analyzed by scientists to understand the dynamics of the ocean and its response to climate change. This information is used to develop models that can predict future ocean conditions and inform management decisions.

Improving Predictive Capabilities

Ocean observation programs are essential for improving our ability to predict future ocean conditions. By providing long-term data sets, these programs allow scientists to identify trends and patterns in ocean variability and to develop more accurate climate models.

In addition to improving climate models, ocean observation programs can also be used to develop early warning systems for extreme events, such as harmful algal blooms and marine heatwaves. These systems can provide timely information to stakeholders, allowing them to take steps to mitigate the impacts of these events.

VI. Future Research Directions: Addressing Knowledge Gaps and Building Resilience

The Pacific Anomalies Workshop Two highlighted the urgent need for further research to address knowledge gaps and build resilience in the face of climate change. Several key research directions emerged from the workshop, focusing on improving our understanding of the drivers and impacts of ocean anomalies, developing more accurate predictive models, and implementing effective management strategies.

Understanding the Drivers of Ocean Anomalies

A key research priority is to improve our understanding of the drivers of ocean anomalies. This includes investigating the role of atmospheric circulation patterns, ocean currents, and biological processes in shaping ocean conditions. Research is needed to understand how these factors interact and how they are being affected by climate change.

• Climate Modeling: Improving climate models is essential for predicting future ocean conditions. This includes incorporating more realistic representations of ocean processes and improving the resolution of models.
• Process Studies: Process studies are needed to investigate the mechanisms that drive ocean anomalies. These studies can involve field observations, laboratory experiments, and numerical modeling.
• Data Assimilation: Data assimilation techniques can be used to combine data from different sources to create a more complete picture of ocean conditions. This can improve the accuracy of climate models and forecasts.

Assessing the Impacts of Ocean Anomalies

Another important research direction is to assess the impacts of ocean anomalies on marine ecosystems and human activities. This includes investigating the effects of changes in temperature, salinity, and nutrient availability on phytoplankton, zooplankton, fish, and marine mammals. Research is also needed to understand the economic and social consequences of fisheries disruptions.

• Ecosystem Modeling: Ecosystem models can be used to simulate the effects of ocean anomalies on marine ecosystems. These models can help to predict how changes in ocean conditions will affect the distribution and abundance of marine species.
• Socioeconomic Studies: Socioeconomic studies are needed to assess the economic and social consequences of fisheries disruptions. These studies can help to identify vulnerable communities and develop strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change.

Developing Management Strategies

A final research direction is to develop effective management strategies to build resilience in the face of climate change. This includes implementing sustainable fishing practices, protecting critical habitats, and reducing pollution.

• Ecosystem-Based Management: Ecosystem-based management is an approach to resource management that considers the entire ecosystem, rather than focusing on individual species. This can help to protect the health and functioning of marine ecosystems.
• Marine Protected Areas: Marine protected areas are areas that are designated for conservation purposes. These areas can help to protect critical habitats and provide refuge for marine species.
• Pollution Reduction: Reducing pollution can help to improve the health of marine ecosystems and make them more resilient to climate change.

By pursuing these research directions, we can improve our understanding of the North Pacific and develop strategies to protect its valuable resources for future generations.

Conclusion: A Call for Continued Collaboration and Action

The Pacific Anomalies Workshop Two served as a crucial forum for scientists to share their knowledge and collaborate on solutions to the challenges posed by climate change in the North Pacific. The workshop highlighted the urgent need for continued research, monitoring, and management to protect marine ecosystems and the communities that depend on them.

The findings presented at the workshop underscore the importance of:

• Sustained Ocean Observation: Maintaining and expanding ocean observation programs is essential for tracking changes in ocean conditions and improving our ability to predict future trends.
• Interdisciplinary Collaboration: Addressing the complex challenges of climate change requires collaboration among scientists from different disciplines, including atmospheric scientists, oceanographers, ecologists, and social scientists.
• Policy Action: The research presented at the workshop can inform the development of effective policies for managing marine resources and protecting the health of the ocean.

The Pacific Anomalies Workshop Two was a significant step forward in our understanding of the North Pacific. By continuing to collaborate and take action, we can build a more resilient and sustainable future for this vital region.